Company: Infinity Pharmaceuticals
Ticker Symbol: INFI
12/10/12 Update… I am selling 100% of INFI at the market. INFI is up over 14% today so I am selling 100% to lock in a gain. Whenever a stock jumps double digits and the option activity dies down, I get out. Today’s movement on Infinity Pharm (INFI) is a good example.
11/29/12 Update… Bought in at $24.90. Stop Loss in at $20.
11/28/12 Our Analysis: Seeing good amount of option activity for Dec and Jan calls up to $30. This one could run pretty quickly as it has gained some great momentum.
This is a high-risk trade with a lot of upside potential. This article will get you up to speed on its potential:
Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a drug discovery and development company, focuses on discovering, developing, and delivering medicines to patients for diseases with significant unmet need. Its lead product candidates include IPI-145, an inhibitor of the delta and gamma isoforms of phosphoinositide-3-kinase; Retaspimycin HCl, a heat shock protein 90 inhibitor; and IPI-940, an inhibitor of fatty acid amide hydrolase, which completed Phase 1 clinical trial. It is also pursuing a dual development path for IPI-145 in both hematologic malignancies and inflammation. The IPI-145 is in an ongoing, Phase 1 dose-escalation trial in patients with advanced hematologic malignancies and in a Phase 2a signal-finding study in patients with mild, allergic asthma. In addition, the company plans to initiate a Phase 2a signal-finding study in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. The Retaspimycin HCl is in a Phase 2 trial in combination with docetaxel to treat patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); and in a Phase 1b/2 trial in combination with everolimus in approximately 45 NSCLC patients with a KRAS mutation. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Will buy tomorrow and enter stop 20% entry price.
Company: Amicus Therapeutics
Ticker Symbol: FOLD
12/20/12 Update… We will be stopped out of Amicus Therapeutics Inc. (FOLD) this morning. Shares tumbled after hours and aren’t looking much better pre-market trading.. The company and GlaxoSmithKline PLC GSK -both said that a late-stage study of a treatment for Fabry disease didn’t meet its primary goal.
Though its phase II looking very positive, phase III simply did not achieve the results we were looking for. As a result we will be out of FOLD today.
12/15/12 Update… Amicus had a great week last week (up $0.66 a share or 12.7%). This stock had been in a tight trading range most of the year, but it could break sharply to the upside soon with good results. It will be releasing phase III results for their flagship drug Migalastat HCl (also known as AT1001, and Amigal. AT1001 restores the function of an enzyme disabled by the Fabry Disease mutation. Study 011 will be a success if the drug manages to meet its primary endpoint (defined as improvement of enzyme functionality disabled by Fabry disease.) Top-line results for Study 011 are due before the end of this year, which could be any day now. Positive top-line results from Study 011 could send the stock soaring. Bad results could sink this stock.
11/29/12 Update… Bought in at $5.76. Stop loss in at $4.60
11/28/12 Our Analysis: Seeing quote a bit of option activity on the $7.50 calls for Dec and Jan. Considering the stock is under $6 shows it has some great upside. It is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of a new class of orally-administered, small molecule drugs, for the treatment of a range of human genetic diseases. FOLD is above both its 50-day at $5.27 and its 200-day at $5.28 with heavy upside volume. It just peaked above its overhead resistance at $5.60. This gives it a good shot to lift above its next overhead resistance levels of $6.82 to $6.89. This stock is higher risk but could get to the $7.50to $8 range with a little momentum. That would give us a 30-40% gain. Will buy tomorrow and enter stop 20% entry price.
Company: AVEO Pharmaceuticals
Ticker Symbol: AVEO
11/29/2012 Update… For those who had your sell limit orders in for AVEO at $7.50 this should have triggered at open this morning for a 12 percent profit. The stock shot up at the opening this morning and then heavy selling came in shortly thereafter. Long story short, we are out of AVEO for now… Here is the news: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-accepts-aveo-kidney-cancer-175236947.html
11/22/2012 Update… Bought in this am @ $6.71. Stop in @ $5.40
11/21/2012 Analysis… We are allocating 10% of the Renegade Model portfolio to AVEO Pharmaceuticals (AVEO). The stock has sold off recently and this could see a quick bounce. It is dedicated to discovering, developing and commercializing targeted therapies to impact the lives of patients living with cancer. The company has built a pipeline of anti-cancer therapeutics through the use of its proprietary Human Response Platform™. The company’s lead product candidate Tivozanib is a potent, selective, long half-life inhibitor of all three vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptors that is designed to optimize VEGF blockade while minimizing off-target toxicities. Tivozanib is an oral, once-daily, investigational tyrosine kinase inhibitor for which AVEO has submitted a new drug application (NDA) to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) seeking approval for Tivozanib in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC). RCC is cancer that starts in the kidneys. About 90 percent of all kidney cancers are renal cell carcinomas. Tivozanib is also being evaluated in other solid tumors including colorectal and breast cancers. Aveo has this big decision due to them very soon since the NDA was filed at the end of September. Here is a great article to get up to speed quickly on AVEO’s potential:
Company: Celsion Corp.
Ticker Symbol: CLSN
Action: BUY (up to $9.00)
1/19/13 Update… Celsion had a horrendous week to say the least (down $1.46 a share or -17%). This is a bit troubling, but at the same time, nothing has changed about the possibilities for the company. It all boils down to whether or not Celsion’s process worked or not. I have read both sides (for and against) and based on the insight and analysis I have done, my expectation is the study will produce positive results. I could be right or wrong, only time will tell.
As you know, there is no certainty for or against the results until they are formulated and reported. Thusly the stock has experienced extreme speculation on both sides (rising and falling). The Renegade system is designed to buy and sell based on option activity and that activity is as fierce as ever. Many have asked about stops and trailing stops. Our system does not use trailing stops but rather initial stops because of the volatility to be experienced leading up to a catalyst event, such as the reporting of test results. It is designed to ride the full cycle of the stock, which will experience highs and lows (sometimes extreme).
Some may try to jump in and out. That is not my specialty. The blessing or the curse is in the news reported by these companies, not in the positive or negative speculation, which often come from “news” articles simply expressing opinions and not real news. I simply buy when the unusual option activity begins and sell when the stock either hits my initial stop (typically 20 percent below entry) or it reports news or hits a profit target I set prior to entry.
12/22/12 Update… It was down $0.90 a share last week or -10.7%. I am not overly concerned here as the opportunity for the stock to soar is still there. Next month is the major catalyst that could send this stock to $15-$20. I am seeing quite a bit of call buying for January & February ($8-$12 Calls). I still have this as a STRONG BUY up to $9. Here are a couple of good articles I read this week:
12/15/12 Update… This is still a buy. It was up $1.04 a share last week or 14.1%! I have raised the buy up to price again to $9. This is still a high risk/high reward trade. If it reports good news next month, I could see this stock topping $20 a share. However, bad news could send the stock into the $2-$4 range so be cautious with this one. Celsion continues to be my top pick. I am glad we go in before others started buying! The stock seems to gaining momentum (SWING) with investors, fund managers, and proprietary trading firms, even insiders are bullish. Despite the larger recent gains, I believe the stock will be even higher heading into its Phase III release.
11/27/12 Update… Celsion (CLSN) had a great day (+17% today) and is now up +46% since we bought a little over a week ago. Option activity continues to be VERY bullish with continued call buying all the way up to $12 for Jan. We keep having to adjust our “buy up to” price (now at $8). This one could easily hit $10 to $12 with a positive report on its cancer drug in January. It continues to get good press as traders and investors keep piling into the stock…
11/23/12 Update… We bought this week at $5.48 and are up 25% for the week. I have raised the buy up to price on this one again as it has the potential to soar above $10. Optimism toward its ThermoDox liver-cancer drug has sent the stock trending upwards VERY quickly. Results of a Phase III trial will be released in January.
11/19/12 Update… Got in this am just under our target price as the stock opened at $5.47. We got in at $5.48. We put our stop in at $4.40.
11/17/12 Our Analysis: We are allocating 10% to Celsion. The Dec and Jan $5.50 calls are trading at a big premium and there is a lot of activity. We will buy on Monday and enter a stop 20% below our entry price. It is a leading oncology company dedicated to the development and commercialization of innovative cancer drugs including tumor-targeting treatments using focused heat energy in combination with heat-activated liposomal drug technology. The company’s HEAT Study has been granted Special Protocol Assessment by the FDA. Following DMC review, the Company plans to disclose top line results, an announcement that is expected to occur in January 2013.
Company: McMoRan Exploration
Ticker Symbol: MMR
11/26 Update… Got stopped @ a 20% loss. The results from its drilling project was less than optimal. We will move on…
11/23/12 Update… MMR was up 3.75% for the week. There is still plenty of option activity on the Dec $13 calls. Not much news this week as we are still waiting to see how its latest drilling program is progressing. A positive report could send this one soaring. The stop-loss is still at $10.
11/17/2012 Update… MMR was down almost 8%, which was a little disappointing. However we need to be patient with this one as it has a ton of upside potential. I am still seeing a good amount of option activity for MMR. McMoRan’s drilling program is expected to report how their exploratory Ultradeep program, is progressing. The pay-off should be substantial in the long run if they can gain production. High temperatures and pressures impede production this deep underground. The proof of concept for the drilling program is now in progress at Davy Jones 1, a huge Wilcox-aged natural gas reservoir and McMoRan’s first Ultradeep discovery. A flow test on DJ 1 is due any time. Testing is underway as of last week. Testing could be finished as quick as 10 days, but until tests are underway it is difficult to establish a timeline. The bottom line is a positive report from this test could send the stock soaring, but of course a bad result could sink the stock as well.
11/12/2012 Update… Bought in today at $12.72. Stop loss is at $10.00.
11/10/2012 Analysis… I am seeing a ton of activity on options for McMoran all the way up to $18. The stock is at $13 so if we can see this hit $18, we could see a 30-35% gain in a short period of time. I will put a 20% stop loss from my entry price. This is a good article to see the potential for this stock: http://beta.fool.com/justmee01/2012/11/05/will-gulf-oil-producer-deliver-good-news/15640/?ticker=MMR&source=eogyholnk0000001
McMoRan Exploration Co. engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico and onshore in the Gulf Coast area of the United States.